SPECIAL REPORT - INFOPLAY
Live betting on the US presidential elections revolutionizes the Spanish online gambling market

Despite the situation of political blockade in Spain that forced the spanish citizens to have to vote up to 4 times in general elections from 2015 to 2019, with two electoral repetitions included; never until the current presidential elections of the United States that still measure Donald Trump and Joe Biden, have online gambling operators given so much prominence to political bets.

Although we cannot have data on the volume of bets in the Spanish market, in this article we will focus on analyzing how the evolution of the odds has been for the winner of these elections. And it is that in the live market that several national operators have offered we have been able to see drastic changes that have surely surprised betting fans in our country, accustomed to non-sports betting markets like this one that are not very fluctuating since the markets Live betting stays just 2 or 3 hours available.

Live bets: a market open for 3 days

Several licensed sports betting operators in Spain have offered the live betting market for the US elections since the closing of the first polling stations on Tuesday night (Spanish time). Hoping that the market would remain open throughout the morning and as it happened in 2016, that the winner could be announced first thing in the morning and the live bets were terminated while the scrutiny lasted.

However, the level of the duel between the two political veterans - the Republican Trump and the Democrat Biden - means that in the middle of Friday, November 6, the customers of bookmakers like bet365.es can still vote for the final winner of the elections such as the winning party in the states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

At this point, as we will see in the next section and as all the news covers on the internet confirm, it is the Democratic candidate Joe Biden who maintains an advantage and his quota to final winner is 1.09 ... by betting 100 euros, we would win € 9 (9.00 odds)

However to the winner of the 5 states still available, the bets can be considered more close.

• In Arizona the triumph of Democrats is paid at 1.36 while the Republican´s victory is paid at 3.
• In Nevada, the victory of the Democrats is almost certain to be paid at 1.03 while the Republican victory odds is paid at 10.
• In Arizona the odds are 1.10 and 6.5 in favor of the Democrats as well.
• In North Carolina the situation is inverse to the previous one, paying 1.10 for the Republicans and 6.5 for the Democrats.
• And in Pennsylvania the Democratic victory is paid at 1.06 while triumph of the Republicans is paid at 8.0 odds

With these odds, translating reality into percentage probabilities, Biden's final victory is taken for granted at 92%.

A wild market with radical changes in odds

But as has been reflected in the news and in almost any media, during the first night - early Spanish time - of the vote count, the triumph of Donald Trump was taken for granted in what was considered a huge surprise already that the starting quotas that we had for example last weekend when the electoral campaign was nearing its end were those below:

• Joe Biden: 1.44
• Donald Trump: 2.75

Here are summarized the major changes in the evolution of the live political betting market odds (odds) that have occurred in the last 62 hours to know the winner of the 2020 US presidential election.

• Tuesday, November 3 at 10:00 p.m: although the live betting market had not yet been opened in Spain, international operators such as Paddy Power made it clear that Trump had a little more probability regarding the odds that were reflected during the last days on the market:

Biden 1.52 vs Trump 2.40

• Tuesday, November 3 at 23:59: at midnight in Spain we begin to see markets available to bet live on the elections in operators such as Betfair or Bet365. The odds they offered were similar to those shown at that time in English bookmakers, which continued to give a clear advantage in favor of the Democrat.

Biden 1.52 vs Trump 2.40

• Wednesday, November 4 at 2:30 in the morning: with the public results of the first votes counted, Trump emerges with force and it is confirmed that they will be more even elections than expected.

Biden is still a favorite at 1.70, but Trump is close to odds 2 (2.10).

• Wednesday, November 4 at 4:00 in the morning: the odds are turned upside down and at bet365.es we already see Trump for the first time with more possibilities (lower odds) to win.

Trump 1.72 vs Biden 2.10

• Wednesday, November 4 at 5:00 a.m: Trump reinforces his favoritism and his quota drops to 1.50

Trump 1.5 vs Biden 2.62

• Wednesday, November 4 at 5:40 a.m: Trump and his voters are seen as the winner while Biden's quota falls to quota 3.

Trump 1.4 vs Biden 3

• Wednesday, November 4 at 5:30 a.m: while the special programs of La Sexta and Antena 3 begin to give Trump real options (until now they did not seem to pay attention to the quotas), the Trump triumph comes to be paid at 1.20 so his favoritism is absolute.

Trump 1.2 vs Biden 3.75

It is at this moment when Donald Trump declares himself the winner ... however also from this time the odds would turn around again and especially after the apparent defeat in Arizona, Biden began to regain ground ...

• Wednesday, November 4 at 11:00 am: Biden 1.55 vs Trump 2.5
• Wednesday, November 4 at 3:00 p.m.: Biden 1.44 vs Trump 2.63
• Wednesday, November 4 at 7:00 p.m: Biden 1.20 vs Trump 4

Since then the odds in favor of Biden have remained from 1.20 to 1.10 and those of Trump around 8 and 9 euros per euro wagered. A reality that has remained until this morning:

• Friday, November 6 at 8:00 a.m.: Donald Trump barely has options paying at rate 8 while the favorite Biden is paid at 1.09.

The specialized US media have managed to graphically reflect this rally of increases and decreases in quotas. Here is a chart from Covers.com showing how both candidates' winning odds have varied in the last 48 hours ...