EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS
Total ban or only sports betting: what is at stake for the sector in Brazil's second round
Lula has banned online gambling by decree; Flávio Bolsonaro would only close online casinos.
Brazil will elect a president on October 25 in a runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) and the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party). In the first round, held on Sunday, October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro obtained 47.03% of the valid votes and Lula, 45.16%: a difference of about 2.2 million votes.
For the gaming sector, the second round pits two models against each other for one of the largest online gambling markets in the world, regulated since January 1, 2025.
Nine days before the first round, on September 25, Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394, published that same day in the Diário Oficial da União. A provisional measure is a norm with the status of law issued by the president and ratified by Congress.
MP 1.394 prohibits the exploitation, offer, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting, both sports and online games, and sets a very short calendar:
The measure obliges financial institutions not to process betting transactions, empowers the telecommunications regulator to block websites and requires the removal of applications from digital stores. An inter-institutional committee will coordinate its application. According to the Brazilian specialized press, the Attorney General's Office of the Union has asked the Supreme Federal Court to rule on its constitutionality.
The measure culminates Lula's change of position. In 2023 he signed Law 14,790, which established the licensing framework, taxation and rules against match-fixing in the regulated market.
In October 2024 he was still defending this model: "We opt for regulation. If regulation works, the problem is solved. If it doesn't work, I end them". In May 2026 he already assured that he would ban them all, and in the campaign he compared the expansion of gambling to that of crack.
Flávio Bolsonaro: Shut down online casinos, maintain sports betting
The Liberal Party candidate criticises the regulation approved by Lula, which he voted against in the Senate, but rejects the total ban. His proposal is to put an end to online casinos and keep betting on real sporting events, such as football, volleyball or tennis, "under control". "The online casino has to end," he said.
After the signing of the MP, Flávio Bolsonaro accused Lula of being an "opportunist" and of resorting to "politicking" on the eve of the elections. He also reproached him for having authorized the bets to raise 20,000 million reais.
MP 1,394 is in force, but, like any provisional measure, it has to be ratified by the National Congress within 60 days, extendable for another 60. If it is not, it loses its effectiveness. Its future will depend on the result of October 25, the composition of the new Congress, where the Liberal Party has won 28 of the 81 seats in the Senate, and the decision of the Supreme Court.
The ban has broad social support: according to an Atlas/Bloomberg poll, 75% of Brazilians are in favor of banning betting and 36% blame Lula's government for its expansion.
