The PP will be the most voted party with a 97% probability, and Feijóo will become the new President with an 88% probability.

 Who will be the next president in Spain? And which party will receive the most votes in the July 23rd elections? The betting houses are certain about it

Political betting is gaining ground year after year, and betting houses in Spain have wasted no time in offering dedicated markets with odds for the next leader of the country and the party with the most votes in the upcoming elections on July 23. In the battle for the incursion of betting houses into Spanish politics, has been the quickest, giving maximum visibility to this market over the weekend.

About Political betting

The fact that betting houses are offering odds and opening markets on the outcome of the General Elections on July 23 should not surprise us. In recent years, we have witnessed the growing presence of so-called "special markets" alongside the usual sports offerings. Betting on the winner of television contests, the Oscars, or Eurovision is a reality that the 2012 Regulation has always allowed, although it requires a special license.

Among these non-sports markets, giving bettors the opportunity to choose the future president of Spain or countries like the United States is one that attracts a lot of attention, and the volume of bets is increasing.

Criticism of this type of market

Setting aside one of the two criticisms that are usually made (the "politicization of the electoral process") as it does not make any sense and noting how even the mainstream press prioritizes turning election night and pre-debates into a struggle for audience and entertainment, rather than focusing on social and economic problems and the candidates' proposals, it is worth noting one of the elements that has caused controversy regarding the intertwining of politics and betting:

We are talking about the possible manipulation of public opinion, which especially after the 2020 presidential elections in the United States (with Joe Biden's victory) became an important debate in some political forums. Like markets such as "Eurovision Winner" or "Who will win the Ballon d'Or" based on votes, odds and betting markets on government elections can influence public opinion and voters' decision-making.

These bets can act as a form of covert propaganda or, at the very least, distort the perception of the real chances of the candidates, as well as having a negative impact on the candidates when it comes to delivering their messages.

In any case, this reality should not represent even a small part of what surveys and predictions constantly represent in the days leading up to an election.

Partido Popular and Feijoó clear favorites

Taking the odds we see today (Sunday, July 2) on, we can see that the candidate from the Popular Party has over 88%* probability of becoming  the next prime minister. Pedro Sánchez would pay 5 euros for every euro bet, while Santiago Abascal pays 46 euros for every euro invested and Yoland Díaz pays 67 euros for every euro bet.
  1. Alberto Núñez Feijóo 1.14
  2. Pedro Sánchez 5.0 (20% chance)
  3. Santiago Abascal 46.0 (more than 1%)
  4. Yolanda Díaz 67.0 (less than 1%)
* In this type of events, the total probabilities exceed 100% because the figures include the commission that the betting house ensures where we place the bet.

In addition to who will be the next president of the Spanish Government (something that indirectly depends on the elections to the Congress of Deputies), another common market in political betting is the party that will receive the most votes. This is a reality that in the United States translates into a competition between Democrats and Republicans, and in Spain, it seems that it will once again be a two-party matter. Although Betfair includes VOX, giving them slightly over 1% chance of being the most voted party.
  1. PP 1.03
  2. PSOE 9.0
  3. VOX 51.0

In conclusion, we would like to emphasize that we believe the inclusion of the elections for the president of the government in the betting markets does not raise serious concerns about the integrity of our democratic system. Betting houses have a very limited role in influencing public opinion, especially when comparing their odds and markets with public opinion polls or electoral studies.
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