Legal betting on the NFL stops growing in the US due to the push of "prediction markets"
The U.S. employers' association estimates $29.5 billion in legal bets on the 2026 NFL season, with virtually no growth compared to the previous year's $29.4 billion, and points to prediction markets as the cause of the stagnation.
Americans will legally bet about $29.5 billion in the 2026 NFL season through the country's regulated commercial bookmakers, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA) estimate. The figure is little different from the 29.4 billion of the previous season, which represents practically zero growth in the legal volume bet.
The AGA attributes that stagnation to the rapid expansion of so-called "prediction markets," which it says offer "backdoor" sports betting and already operate in all 50 states and Washington, D.C.
"Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on sports betting in 2018, legalized betting had seen tremendous growth. But this year is different: since the widespread launch of covert sports betting in so-called 'prediction markets,' the growth in legal volume has slowed," said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller.
According to the association, these platforms operate outside the regulatory frameworks that govern sports betting in the 40 jurisdictions where they are legal, while circumventing laws that prohibit them in the 11 states that have chosen not to regulate them.
The AGA specifies that sports betting accounts for about 80% of Kalshi's volume, which includes about 5,100 million dollars from users between 18 and 20 years old, an age group below the legal limit in 35 of the 40 jurisdictions where sports betting is allowed.
The employers' association contrasts the impact of both models. The regulated gambling industry supports 1.8 million jobs and generates about $18 billion annually in taxes derived from sports betting, aimed at projects such as education, infrastructure and public services. In contrast, it estimates that "prediction markets" such as Kalshi and Polymarket have "diverted" more than $1.3 billion in potential state tax revenues since 2025.
Miller also charged against the marketing of these products: "These 'prediction markets' platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by presenting sports betting as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment." He added that Kalshi and other platforms maintain that they are not required to comply with state and tribal sports betting regulations or pay taxes, which he believes leaves consumers, "including teenagers and freshmen," gambling without the protections, oversight and accountability of the legal market.
As the NFL season kicks off, the AGA encourages fans to distinguish between licensed sportsbooks, "prediction markets" and other illegal operators, and to only bet with state- and tribal-regulated operators.
On the methodology, the association explains that the estimate is based on national volume growth so far in 2026 applied to last season's estimated NFL total, along with football-specific data from selected states. The figure includes the preseason, futures bets formalized since March, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI (February 2027).
The AGA is the employers' association that represents the casino industry in the United States, a sector that, according to the association itself, moves 329,000 million dollars and supports 1.8 million jobs throughout the country.
